Friday, April 26, 2024
 
As Markets Gyrate, Brexit Vote Feels Like Little More Than Ephemera

WASHINGTON, D.C. June 24 (DPI) – A slight majority of UK voters said yesterday they’d like their nation to withdraw from the European Union, surprising pollsters and politicians alike. But the long-term impact of the vote may not be quite as dramatic as the breathless headlines and gyrating markets are suggesting today.

In fact, the Brexit vote, while instructive of on-the-street sentiment, is small pushback after a generation of global economic integration, and it will hardly reverse a tide of globalization that’s raised living standards and even eradicated much poverty over the years.

It’s true that the European Union is a sprawling and inefficient bureaucracy, but the Brexit vote actually forces the bloc to re-think some of its policies and approaches, especially related to immigration, which spurred so much of UK voters’ anti-EU sentiment. And those policy improvements could spur yet more economic integration.

For now, speculators have to be happy with the outcome. As one poster on NYTimes.com wrote this morning, “Volatility is good for speculators, and I believe that big money welcomes the news.” But that volatility will wane, and traders in world markets will soon look for another event to trigger price instability.

Powerful forces of the digital age have all sovereigns on the defensive, and that trend is only beginning. Like flowing water eroding the land, technology – global networks, global capital flows and global social media – are all re-shaping the political and economic landscape. And Brexit, with its core support from older people yearning for the old days, cannot count on a growing constituency.

Other forces, too, make the impact of the Brexit vote limited at best: UK’s Parliament must act to carry out the nation’s departure from the EU, and that’s hardly assured. For another, negative market forces – that is, weeks of bear markets – could make even ordinary English townspeople re-consider their vote – and likely prompt yet another plebiscite, or make Parliament drag its feet on any action.

Something similar occurred in the fall of 2008, when the US congress voted down a massive bailout package for the financial system, the stock and bond markets cratered. Spooked by that evaporation of wealth, congress conducted another vote and passed the bailout.

Meanwhile, many readers sense the Brexit vote is simply being hyped, for all the now-familiar reasons – for news outlets to sell higher-priced advertising, and for traders to exploit a few days of market volatility. Among the most popular comments from nytimes.com this morning:

What shocks? All this is way overblown. Trade is not going away and consumers are not going to just stop buying things from those they want. The is much more about not allowing others to determine your future.

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